Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 11.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 14.7 | 27.8 | +13.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 14.2 | 4.9 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | 10.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 3.9 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.9 | 3.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.8 | 2.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 14.1 | 5.3 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 12.4 | 28.6 | +16.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.2 | 1.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 8.3 | 10.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.4 | 2.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.6 | 2.3 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.2 | 4.2 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 16.1 | 23.6 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 12.5 | 8.8 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 9.4 | 9.9 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 9.6 | 3.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.8 | 6.4 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 11.4 | 18.0 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 15.3 | 7.0 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.1 | 8.9 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 9.9 | 9.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 13.3 | 4.7 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 15.8 | 14.1 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 4.1 | 11.6 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 3.5 | 5.9 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 5.3 | 3.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 1.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 9.0 | 1.9 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 1.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 14.5 | 9.1 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 7.0 | 0.9 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.4 | 1.8 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 8.2 | 10.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | 0.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Evan HullRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 17.8 | 10.3 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 7.2 | 6.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 8.5 | 15.1 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 12.0 | 19.4 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.7 | 25.3 | +14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 12.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | 1.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | 3.8 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 5.6 | 4.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.0 | 12.1 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse