Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 7.3 | 10.6 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 8.2 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 6.7 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 17.8 | 24.9 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 1.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 11.8 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | 5.0 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 4.4 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 12.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 4.8 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 21.6 | 22.7 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 6.3 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 12.7 | 13.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 15.2 | +11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 18.5 | 25.9 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | 10.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 7.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 16.0 | 23.6 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 15.6 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 14.2 | 19.9 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | 5.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 7.5 | 16.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 4.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 3.0 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 15.4 | 21.9 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 14.5 | 30.9 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 3.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 7.7 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 5.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 24.7 | 46.5 | +21.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 6.4 | 13.1 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 1.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 7.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 12.3 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.5) | 10.4 | 26.9 | +16.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 9.7 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | David SillsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 4.5 | 13.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 3.2 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 10.1 | 45.6 | +35.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 10.3 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 8.6 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 8.0 | 10.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 7.9 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 12.8 | 16.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 11.0 | 15.4 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.2 | 15.6 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.5) | 11.5 | 21.3 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | 13.4 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 17.2 | 21.8 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.5) | 14.7 | 19.6 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | 3.3 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 6.8 | 11.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David SillsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 9.5 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 6.7 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 9.1 | 11.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 10.3 | 15.2 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 9.4 | 16.8 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 6.4 | 13.5 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 4.8 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 16.8 | 22.2 | +5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 11.2 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 21.1 | 30.3 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 2.8 | 3.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 5.9 | 23.3 | +17.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 4.9 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 14.1 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 11.3 | 12.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | 17.4 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 5.8 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 8.8 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | 11.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 13.9 | 24.2 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Davis MillsQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 14.0 | 16.4 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 12.6 | 19.7 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 17.6 | 19.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.9 | 9.5 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.5) | 20.8 | 26.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 16.7 | 19.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 9.4 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 9.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 18.8 | 24.8 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 13.5 | 19.4 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 3.6 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 6.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 10.1 | 19.2 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 14.1 | +10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 15.9 | 21.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | 2.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 15.1 | 27.7 | +12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 17.5 | 22.4 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 4.5 | 13.4 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 3 · 236 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse