Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 20.3 | 0.7 | −19.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 16.2 | 15.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 1.6 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 8.7 | 6.5 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 17.9 | 1.4 | −16.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 16.2 | 13.4 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 17.8 | 1.9 | −15.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.3 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 0.7 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 13.7 | 2.6 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 21.1 | 20.3 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 6.6 | 2.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach HortonTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 2.8 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 18.6 | 9.6 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 9.9 | 6.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 19.1 | 11.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 10.8 | 7.6 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Evan HullRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 4.2 | 0.3 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 5.2 | 4.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 10.8 | 0.0 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Corey KinerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 0.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 12.8 | 11.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 8.0 | 1.2 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 8.6 | 4.1 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | 2.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 10.7 | 4.6 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 2.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | J.J. McCarthyQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | 8.3 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 9.7 | 8.6 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 3.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 5.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 6.5 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 10.4 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 10.5 | 2.6 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 11.5 | 8.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.5 | 5.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 0.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 4.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 12.2 | 8.2 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 9.1 | 4.9 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.6 | 7.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | 5.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 1.6 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | 0.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 11.6 | 7.8 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 20.8 | 11.4 | −9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 15.3 | 6.0 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Evan HullRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | 2.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 9.9 | 6.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.4 | 12.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 1.1 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 7.8 | 7.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 12.4 | 3.7 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 19.7 | 11.6 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 11.3 | 4.5 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 6.2 | 3.4 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | 8.9 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 4.5 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 13.6 | 2.4 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 8 · 755 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse