Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Explosive plays: every call
Defenses that allow more 20-yard plays boost players whose points come from big plays.
2024 backtest
2–1–1
66.7% vs 36.3% baseline
2025 backtest
17–14–1
54.8% vs 49.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
8–4
66.7% vs 47.5% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 16–14–2 | 53.3% | 47.3% |
| RB | 3–1 | 75.0% | 55.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 19–15–2 | 55.9% | 48.3% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Explosive plays vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 15.6 | 41.3 | +25.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 9.5 | 5.0 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Explosive plays vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 2.0 | −13.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Explosive plays vs DET, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Explosive plays vs DET, expected +0.4) | 16.8 | 45.2 | +28.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Denzel BostonWR CLE | Boost (Explosive plays vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 9.5 | 12.9 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Stefon DiggsWR WAS | Fade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 7.3 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 19.7 | +9.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Explosive plays vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 20.9 | 35.4 | +14.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Fade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Explosive plays vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 14.5 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse