Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Explosive plays: every call

Defenses that allow more 20-yard plays boost players whose points come from big plays.

2024 backtest

2–1–1

66.7% vs 36.3% baseline

Win rate 66.7% (95% 20.8%–93.8%) vs baseline 36.3%

2025 backtest

17–14–1

54.8% vs 49.4% baseline

Win rate 54.8% (95% 37.8%–70.8%) vs baseline 49.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

8–4

66.7% vs 47.5% baseline

Win rate 66.7% (95% 39.1%–86.2%) vs baseline 47.5%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR16–14–253.3%47.3%
RB3–175.0%55.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.519–15–255.9%48.3%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Explosive plays calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4CeeDee LambWR DALBoost (Explosive plays vs HOU, expected +0.3)15.641.3+25.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Quentin JohnstonWR LACFade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.4)9.55.0−4.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Explosive plays vs CIN, expected +0.3)15.52.0−13.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Explosive plays vs DET, expected +0.3)12.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Explosive plays vs DET, expected +0.4)16.845.2+28.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Denzel BostonWR CLEBoost (Explosive plays vs PIT, expected +0.4)9.512.9+3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Stefon DiggsWR WASFade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.3)10.37.3−3.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Terry McLaurinWR WASFade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.3)9.819.7+9.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Explosive plays vs WAS, expected +0.4)20.935.4+14.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Luke McCaffreyWR WASFade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Explosive plays vs HOU, expected +0.3)11.614.5+2.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)17.824.9+7.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jameson WilliamsWR DETBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.5)16.213.4−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Explosive plays vs MIN, expected −0.3)8.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jayden ReedWR GBFade (Explosive plays vs MIN, expected −0.3)6.30.0−6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Explosive plays vs DAL, expected +0.4)17.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Justin JeffersonWR MINBoost (Explosive plays vs DET, expected +0.3)14.67.0−7.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Explosive plays vs MIN, expected −0.4)16.65.7−10.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Explosive plays vs DET, expected +0.3)13.68.2−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Explosive plays vs PIT, expected −0.3)17.212.0−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)10.03.7−6.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.4)24.746.5+21.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)9.07.1−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Explosive plays vs MIN, expected −0.3)10.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Courtland SuttonWR DENFade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3)13.524.3+10.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Explosive plays vs MIN, expected −0.3)17.017.1+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W15George PickensWR DALFade (Explosive plays vs MIN, expected −0.3)18.06.3−11.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)12.624.9+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)5.49.3+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13A.J. BrownWR PHIBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)15.535.2+19.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13DeVonta SmithWR PHIBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)16.09.8−6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.4)13.226.9+13.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Explosive plays vs TB, expected +0.3)17.023.2+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W12DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)12.514.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3)13.68.8−4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Explosive plays vs TB, expected +0.3)20.416.7−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Emeka EgbukaWR TBFade (Explosive plays vs LAR, expected −0.3)15.76.2−9.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Justin JeffersonWR MINBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)17.011.1−5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)12.810.0−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3)13.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10A.J. BrownWR PHIFade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3)14.13.3−10.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10DeVonta SmithWR PHIFade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3)17.816.9−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8DK MetcalfWR PITFade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3)15.616.5+0.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Explosive plays vs CLE, expected +0.3)12.619.5+6.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINBoost (Explosive plays vs CLE, expected +0.3)22.322.4+0.1pushBacktest ·
2024 W14George PickensWR PITBoost (Explosive plays vs CLE, expected +0.3)14.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Explosive plays vs JAX, expected +0.3)13.319.9+6.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W10Justin JeffersonWR MINBoost (Explosive plays vs JAX, expected +0.3)17.79.8−7.9❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse