Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Explosive plays: every call
Defenses that allow more 20-yard plays boost players whose points come from big plays.
2024 backtest
2–1–1
66.7% vs 36.3% baseline
2025 backtest
17–14–1
54.8% vs 49.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
8–4
66.7% vs 47.5% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 16–14–2 | 53.3% | 47.3% |
| RB | 3–1 | 75.0% | 55.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 19–15–2 | 55.9% | 48.3% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 17.8 | 24.9 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Explosive plays vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Explosive plays vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 16.6 | 5.7 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Explosive plays vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 25.5 | 6.4 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Explosive plays vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 17.2 | 12.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Explosive plays vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 18.0 | 6.3 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 12.6 | 24.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 9.3 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 35.2 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.4) | 23.9 | 11.6 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Explosive plays vs TB, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 23.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 14.4 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 8.8 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Explosive plays vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 15.7 | 6.2 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 13.1 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3) | 14.1 | 3.3 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 16.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Explosive plays vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 12.6 | 19.5 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Explosive plays vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 19.9 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse