Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Man coverage: every call
Receivers who beat man coverage (and QBs who scramble against it) gain against man-heavy defenses; zone-beaters gain against zone-heavy ones.
2024 backtest
20–30–3
40.0% vs 49.0% baseline
2025 backtest
28–32–7
46.7% vs 49.7% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
5–5–2
50.0% vs 49.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 44–49–8 | 47.3% | 50.1% |
| RB | 3–7 | 30.0% | 40.5% |
| TE | 1–2–1 | 33.3% | 39.1% |
| WR | 0–4–1 | 0.0% | 63.7% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 46–61–10 | 43.0% | 49.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 2–1 | 66.7% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Man coverage vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 9.7 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Geno SmithQB NYJ | Boost (Man coverage vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 8.8 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Man coverage vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 20.1 | 20.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Man coverage vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 20.4 | 23.7 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 19.4 | 19.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Malik WillisQB MIA | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 2.5 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 14.4 | 20.9 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Geno SmithQB NYJ | Boost (Man coverage vs DET, expected +0.3) | 14.3 | 26.0 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Man coverage vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 17.3 | 12.6 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Man coverage vs DET, expected +0.3) | 23.6 | 40.8 | +17.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 6.2 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Man coverage vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 20.0 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Man coverage vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 20.5 | 21.1 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Fade (Man coverage vs TB, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 16.5 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Man coverage vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 19.2 | 10.5 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 17.8 | 2.1 | −15.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Man coverage vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 18.4 | 23.2 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Man coverage vs KC, expected +0.3) | 19.0 | 19.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Man coverage vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 3.7 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Man coverage vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 19.8 | 6.9 | −12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Man coverage vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 18.5 | 29.0 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Fade (Man coverage vs TB, expected −0.3) | 14.2 | 17.6 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Man coverage vs TB, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 26.9 | +16.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 19.8 | 12.0 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 13.9 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Boost (Man coverage vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.4) | 15.0 | 29.1 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 9.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 17.0 | -2.1 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Man coverage vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 23.4 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 2.7 | −16.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 23.3 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.5) | 17.0 | 20.6 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mason RudolphQB PIT | Fade (Man coverage vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | -2.0 | −14.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 17.4 | 3.1 | −14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Man coverage vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 18.6 | 16.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 16.6 | 7.1 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Russell WilsonQB NYG | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Man coverage vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 15.0 | 12.1 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 19.1 | 13.3 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Man coverage vs TB, expected −0.5) | 20.3 | 42.7 | +22.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Man coverage vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 15.7 | 6.8 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Man coverage vs KC, expected +0.3) | 15.3 | 12.6 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Man coverage vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 24.8 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 21.0 | 16.6 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Man coverage vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 10.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Man coverage vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 7.8 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.4) | 17.7 | 12.0 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 19.4 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Man coverage vs KC, expected +0.3) | 19.6 | 28.8 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 3.0 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 18.3 | 6.6 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 19.6 | 25.3 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Man coverage vs TB, expected −0.3) | 15.7 | 2.6 | −13.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Man coverage vs TB, expected −0.4) | 20.3 | 10.3 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Man coverage vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | -1.4 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 18.6 | 24.0 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Man coverage vs KC, expected +0.3) | 16.4 | 16.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jake BrowningQB CIN | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Man coverage vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 6.6 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 15.3 | 4.9 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mac JonesQB SF | Fade (Man coverage vs TB, expected −0.4) | 15.4 | 11.2 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Fade (Man coverage vs TB, expected −0.4) | 15.8 | 27.6 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 19.8 | 19.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Man coverage vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 17.9 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 31.0 | +16.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Man coverage vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 17.7 | 12.7 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jake BrowningQB CIN | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 12.6 | 5.4 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Man coverage vs TB, expected −0.3) | 19.3 | 19.4 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Joe FlaccoQB CLE | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.5) | 11.7 | 3.7 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Man coverage vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 24.9 | 23.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jake BrowningQB CIN | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 12.9 | 5.9 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Man coverage vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 12.9 | 12.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 14.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Man coverage vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 16.7 | 13.4 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Fade (Man coverage vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 4.0 | −12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.3) | 19.5 | 19.7 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Man coverage vs GB, expected −0.5) | 16.4 | 10.9 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Man coverage vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 20.0 | 8.8 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 21.5 | 9.2 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Man coverage vs NO, expected +0.3) | 22.2 | 21.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Man coverage vs LV, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 28.0 | +9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 16.0 | 14.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Man coverage vs NO, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 17.6 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 21.4 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Man coverage vs NO, expected +0.3) | 18.5 | 11.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Fade (Man coverage vs LV, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 13.9 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Man coverage vs LV, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 6.5 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 13.0 | 9.8 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Man coverage vs LV, expected −0.3) | 19.2 | 19.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Drew LockQB NYG | Boost (Man coverage vs NO, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 15.0 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tommy DeVitoQB NYG | Boost (Man coverage vs NO, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 0.0 | −11.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 15.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Boost (Man coverage vs KC, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Boost (Man coverage vs NO, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 26.6 | +11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Man coverage vs KC, expected +0.3) | 18.6 | 24.0 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Man coverage vs LV, expected −0.4) | 15.8 | 23.5 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Man coverage vs NO, expected +0.3) | 16.7 | 10.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Man coverage vs IND, expected −0.3) | 19.5 | 18.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 126 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse