Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 15.6 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −1.1) | 13.7 | 20.2 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 7.4 | 2.8 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 14.8 | 11.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 20.7 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs TB, expected +0.4) | 14.4 | 12.4 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 8.1 | 18.7 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 3.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | 3.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 9.9 | 4.2 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 6.6 | 0.0 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | 18.6 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 5.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 8.2 | 3.4 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 8.2 | 10.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 6.5 | 0.9 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 15.1 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 12.0 | 19.4 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 14.7 | 11.9 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.4) | 11.0 | 13.6 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 9.0 | 7.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.7) | 11.2 | 9.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 20.4 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 11.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 9.8 | 6.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | 10.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 12.3 | 19.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 12.5 | 5.7 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.6) | 7.0 | 3.3 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 8.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 4.1 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.6) | 19.2 | 10.8 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 6.4 | 13.9 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.7) | 11.2 | 3.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | 5.3 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 7.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 2.9 | 6.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 8.0 | 0.3 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 7.9 | 12.6 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 8.1 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 7.9 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 12.3 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 2.4 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 16.3 | 18.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 7.1 | 8.7 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 9.9 | 21.7 | +11.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 2.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 6.6 | 10.5 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 9.9 | 18.6 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 5.3 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 15.2 | 29.7 | +14.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 16.3 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | 13.9 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 7.7 | 3.1 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 5.9 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.6) | 13.1 | 9.4 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 8.1 | 9.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 13.6 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 14.6 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 10.1 | 17.2 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 4.4 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 7.4 | 1.6 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.4) | 11.8 | 8.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 9.2 | 8.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 17.6 | 9.9 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 8.2 | 16.8 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 13.4 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 17.8 | +13.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.4) | 12.2 | 15.0 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 29.1 | +15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 5.7 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 11.9 | 6.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 14.8 | 9.5 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.8 | 15.2 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.4) | 11.2 | 8.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 17.6 | 13.5 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | 17.7 | +14.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 3.4 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 5.8 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Diontae JohnsonWR CAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 12.7 | 2.7 | −10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 20.7 | 21.4 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 13.5 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 16.2 | 13.1 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 11.1 | 10.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 9.6 | 2.5 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 2.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 6.9 | 2.9 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 2.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | 9.6 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 18.3 | 35.5 | +17.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse