Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Mike EvansWR SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 12.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 14.0 | 17.0 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | 18.0 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jauan JenningsWR MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIA, expected +0.6) | 7.8 | 1.8 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 4.1 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs LV, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 28.1 | +23.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 15.9 | 4.6 | −11.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 20.6 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 12.8 | 9.1 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 22.2 | 21.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 4.2 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Kalif RaymondWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 9.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 8.3 | 5.9 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 16.5 | 8.5 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 5.3 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 12.9 | 18.1 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | 14.1 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 14.2 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 12.1 | 7.3 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 9.9 | 1.3 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 9.5 | 14.4 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 6.2 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 16.2 | 13.4 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 21.6 | 14.4 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 12.2 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 17.4 | 14.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 5.7 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 20.4 | 16.2 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 23.1 | 9.4 | −13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 17.2 | 12.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 3.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 24.7 | 46.5 | +21.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 4.6 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 4.3 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 11.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 1.5 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 21.3 | 4.3 | −17.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 2.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 4.3 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 8.3 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 22.3 | 6.0 | −16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 6.9 | 5.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 6.1 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 3.9 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 16.3 | 12.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 4.3 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 19.8 | 18.7 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 7.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 18.6 | 9.4 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.2 | 5.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.4) | 12.4 | 3.5 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.7) | 11.2 | 18.6 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | 7.8 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 16.7 | 20.8 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 2.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 15.2 | 12.3 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.9) | 18.3 | 9.3 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.8) | 26.3 | 25.6 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 22.2 | 13.7 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 14.3 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 8.1 | 3.2 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 22.1 | +14.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 18.1 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.6) | 8.3 | 15.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 8.5 | 2.7 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 19.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 4.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 17.1 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.4) | 19.9 | 17.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.2 | 40.1 | +22.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.8) | 15.4 | 8.9 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 12.0 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | 6.2 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.8) | 15.0 | 23.9 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 4.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 15.5 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 6.1 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 9.3 | 8.4 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 11.1 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 11.9 | 4.2 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 10.3 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | 21.8 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 15.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 3.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 4 · 307 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse