Edgehalla

Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth

Middle of the field: every call

Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.

2024 backtest

238–254–36

48.4% vs 51.4% baseline

Win rate 48.4% (95% 44.0%–52.8%) vs baseline 51.4%

2025 backtest

35–31–1

53.0% vs 44.5% baseline

Win rate 53.0% (95% 41.2%–64.6%) vs baseline 44.5%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

25–22–1

53.2% vs 48.8% baseline

Win rate 53.2% (95% 39.2%–66.7%) vs baseline 48.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
TE70–69–1150.4%50.9%
WR197–208–2548.6%50.4%
RB6–8–142.9%55.1%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5227–229–3249.8%50.4%
0.5–145–54–545.5%51.2%
1+1–233.3%63.7%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllWRTERB
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Middle of the field calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W4CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Middle of the field vs NYG, expected −0.3)18.423.6+5.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Nico CollinsWR HOUFade (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected −0.8)19.333.1+13.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Rashid ShaheedWR NOFade (Middle of the field vs ATL, expected −0.4)11.217.7+6.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6)7.71.9−5.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W4DeMario DouglasWR NEBoost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3)6.24.3−1.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Ladd McConkeyWR LACFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.6)9.417.7+8.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Davante AdamsWR LVBoost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4)14.78.0−6.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Darnell MooneyWR ATLFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5)10.314.6+4.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W3CeeDee LambWR DALBoost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.6)20.18.7−11.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Tyler JohnsonWR LARBoost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.5)9.55.0−4.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Drake LondonWR ATLFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3)12.218.7+6.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3)6.98.7+1.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Jayden ReedWR GBFade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3)8.310.9+2.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4)8.17.4−0.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Mike EvansWR TBBoost (Middle of the field vs DET, expected +0.3)12.37.2−5.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Courtland SuttonWR DENBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)11.93.6−8.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Bo MeltonWR GBBoost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.3)4.50.8−3.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Rashid ShaheedWR NOFade (Middle of the field vs DAL, expected −0.4)7.720.9+13.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.3)9.00.0−9.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Andrei IosivasWR CINFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3)6.414.7+8.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.4)8.56.6−1.9❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 3 of 3 · 221 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse