Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W6 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 4.3 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 6.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | 2.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 17.6 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | 11.1 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 10.2 | 6.3 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 10.8 | 16.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 14.5 | 23.2 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 12.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs TB, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 12.6 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 9.3 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.9) | 20.1 | 11.4 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 8.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.7) | 10.9 | 18.6 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 4.0 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | 4.9 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 13.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | 23.7 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 6.6 | 15.9 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 18.5 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.5) | 7.1 | 3.2 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 5.6 | 3.5 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 5.7 | 1.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 4.4 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 15.0 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 8.7 | 11.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 1.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 14.8 | 10.2 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 17.7 | 20.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | K.J. OsbornWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.4) | 4.9 | 1.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 18.4 | 23.6 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected −0.8) | 19.3 | 33.1 | +13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 11.2 | 17.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 7.7 | 1.9 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 4.3 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.6) | 9.4 | 17.7 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Davante AdamsWR LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 14.7 | 8.0 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.3 | 14.6 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.6) | 20.1 | 8.7 | −11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.5) | 9.5 | 5.0 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.2 | 18.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 8.7 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 8.3 | 10.9 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 10.8 | 7.1 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 8.1 | 7.4 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs DET, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 7.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 44.0 | +29.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 11.9 | 3.6 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | 0.8 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 7.7 | 20.9 | +13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.3) | 9.0 | 0.0 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 14.7 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.4) | 8.5 | 6.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 3 of 3 · 254 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse