Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W3 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.0 | 9.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 13.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 3.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 11.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 8.0 | 7.9 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 1.8 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 9.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 7.3 | 7.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 9.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 7.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 9.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 8.2 | 7.9 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse