Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs LV, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 3.5 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 14.0 | 17.0 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | David NjokuTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIA, expected +0.6) | 9.4 | 24.9 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 15.6 | 10.1 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Isaiah LikelyTE NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.4) | 9.3 | 13.6 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 4.1 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 20.6 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.4) | 4.1 | 8.1 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 12.8 | 9.1 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 11.9 | 13.9 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 26.2 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.0 | 9.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 8.3 | 5.9 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 12.9 | 18.1 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 17.2 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 9.9 | 1.3 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 9.5 | 14.4 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 11.8 | 7.9 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 11.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 5.2 | 25.6 | +20.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 2.7 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 11.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 8.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 2.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 7.5 | 14.9 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 5.2 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 6.6 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 4.3 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 21.7 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 7.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.2 | 5.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.7) | 11.2 | 18.6 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 5.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 2.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 14.8 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.6) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.7) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 19.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 4.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 11.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | 2.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 8.9 | 4.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 8.9 | 2.2 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 2.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 20.9 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.5) | 12.7 | 4.5 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.5) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 19.8 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.6) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 1.9 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 8.7 | 11.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.6) | 16.9 | 17.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 18.3 | +12.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 9.5 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.9) | 11.4 | 13.4 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 10.8 | 7.3 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 8.2 | 3.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | 8.4 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 10.7 | 12.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 13.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse