Edgehalla

Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth

Middle of the field: every call

Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.

2024 backtest

238–254–36

48.4% vs 51.4% baseline

Win rate 48.4% (95% 44.0%–52.8%) vs baseline 51.4%

2025 backtest

35–31–1

53.0% vs 44.5% baseline

Win rate 53.0% (95% 41.2%–64.6%) vs baseline 44.5%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

25–22–1

53.2% vs 48.8% baseline

Win rate 53.2% (95% 39.2%–66.7%) vs baseline 48.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
TE70–69–1150.4%50.9%
WR197–208–2548.6%50.4%
RB6–8–142.9%55.1%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5227–229–3249.8%50.4%
0.5–145–54–545.5%51.2%
1+1–233.3%63.7%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllWRTERB
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Middle of the field calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18George KittleTE SFFade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3)11.87.9−3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3)10.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brock BowersTE LVFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5)10.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17George KittleTE SFBoost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3)13.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)10.411.0+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4)11.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6)5.225.6+20.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3)5.42.7−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13T.J. HockensonTE MINFade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3)6.811.9+5.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jake FergusonTE DALFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3)10.88.6−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)7.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)3.12.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4)7.514.9+7.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)3.55.2+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Noah FantTE CINBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)6.16.6+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3)6.57.0+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)12.14.3−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3)11.021.7+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)12.57.6−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W6David NjokuTE CLEBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)8.25.8−2.4❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse