Edgehalla

Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth

Middle of the field: every call

Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.

2024 backtest

238–254–36

48.4% vs 51.4% baseline

Win rate 48.4% (95% 44.0%–52.8%) vs baseline 51.4%

2025 backtest

35–31–1

53.0% vs 44.5% baseline

Win rate 53.0% (95% 41.2%–64.6%) vs baseline 44.5%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

25–22–1

53.2% vs 48.8% baseline

Win rate 53.2% (95% 39.2%–66.7%) vs baseline 48.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
TE70–69–1150.4%50.9%
WR197–208–2548.6%50.4%
RB6–8–142.9%55.1%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5227–229–3249.8%50.4%
0.5–145–54–545.5%51.2%
1+1–233.3%63.7%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllWRTERB
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Middle of the field calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Travis KelceTE KCFade (Middle of the field vs LV, expected −0.3)11.23.5−7.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4George KittleTE SFFade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.6)14.017.0+3.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4David NjokuTE LACFade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.4)5.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Middle of the field vs MIA, expected +0.6)9.424.9+15.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jake TongesTE SFFade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.4)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Middle of the field vs NYG, expected −0.3)15.610.1−5.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Isaiah LikelyTE NYGBoost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.4)9.313.6+4.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected +0.3)8.04.1−3.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brock BowersTE LVFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3)13.520.6+7.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.4)4.18.1+4.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.5)12.89.1−3.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Middle of the field vs MIA, expected +0.3)11.913.9+2.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3George KittleTE SFBoost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3)13.526.2+12.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3)3.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3)9.09.3+0.3pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.5)8.35.9−2.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.6)12.918.1+5.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected +0.3)10.817.2+6.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4)9.91.3−8.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyler WarrenTE INDFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4)9.514.4+4.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse