Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.9) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +1.1) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +1.3) | 15.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.9) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | 1.3 | −0.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 15.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 20.3 | 1.5 | −18.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 2.1 | 2.0 | −0.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.9) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.6) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 16.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +2.3) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +2.6) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.4) | 13.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.4) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.4) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.0) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Myles GaskinRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DeeJay DallasRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Trey SermonRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 7.1 | 2.1 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 3.0 | -0.1 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.2) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse