Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Missed tackles: every call

Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.

2024 backtest

461–500–67

48.0% vs 50.7% baseline

Win rate 48.0% (95% 44.8%–51.1%) vs baseline 50.7%

2025 backtest

345–372–50

48.1% vs 50.1% baseline

Win rate 48.1% (95% 44.5%–51.8%) vs baseline 50.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

59–66–9

47.2% vs 49.7% baseline

Win rate 47.2% (95% 38.7%–55.9%) vs baseline 49.7%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB568–625–7647.6%50.9%
WR176–187–2748.5%49.8%
TE62–60–1450.8%48.0%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5478–526–8747.6%51.0%
0.5–1219–234–2248.3%50.0%
1+109–112–849.3%48.9%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Missed tackles calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Ameer AbdullahRB JAXBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4)3.60.0−3.6voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4)5.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Saquon BarkleyRB PHIFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.9)12.82.0−10.8voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trayveon WilliamsRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Missed tackles vs TB, expected +0.4)10.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaret PattersonRB LACFade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Travis EtienneRB NOFade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.4)12.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3)2.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jordan MasonRB MINFade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3)7.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.5)2.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaleel McLaughlinRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3)1.38.8+7.5voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.3)12.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jonathon BrooksRB CARFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.9)6.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Audric EstiméRB NOFade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3)6.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jalen CokerWR CARFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3)12.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4)3.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trevor EtienneRB CARFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.6)1.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jeremy McNicholsRB WASFade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Nick ChubbRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5)3.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Andrew BeckRB NYJFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Trayveon WilliamsRB CLEFade (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected −0.3)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.4)12.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Michael CarterRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3)6.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jordan MasonRB MINBoost (Missed tackles vs TB, expected +0.5)6.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.6)2.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Zavier ScottRB MINBoost (Missed tackles vs TB, expected +0.3)3.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Sean TuckerRB TBFade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3)3.20.0−3.2voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5)17.51.7−15.8voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Zach CharbonnetRB SEABoost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3)11.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jonathon BrooksRB CARBoost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4)6.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jawhar JordanRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6)4.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Isaiah DavisRB NYJFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.6)3.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Trey BensonRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3)3.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dylan SampsonRB CLEFade (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected −0.3)4.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Trevor EtienneRB CARBoost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kaytron AllenRB WASFade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Nick ChubbRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6)3.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Saquon BarkleyRB PHIBoost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.5)15.13.0−12.1voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Miles SandersRB DALBoost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3)3.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ty JohnsonRB BUFFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5)6.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3)3.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Michael CarterRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3)7.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Bam KnightRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3)4.12.4−1.7voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Malik DavisRB DALBoost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3)3.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3)3.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6)5.90.0−5.9voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jawhar JordanRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8)5.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jaylen WrightRB MIAFade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3)2.61.1−1.5voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Trey BensonRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jaydon BlueRB DALBoost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3)5.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2RJ HarveyRB DENBoost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.3)11.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Raheem MostertRB LVFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3)10.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18James ConnerRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.9)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +1.1)10.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Nick ChubbRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Saquon BarkleyRB PHIBoost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +1.3)15.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Alexander MattisonRB LVFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.9)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Justice HillRB BALBoost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Miles SandersRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4)13.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18AJ DillonRB PHIBoost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3)2.01.3−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3)15.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Najee HarrisRB LACFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Bam KnightRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18James CookRB BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7)20.31.5−18.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Mike WoodsWR CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)6.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zamir WhiteRB LVFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5)2.12.0−0.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Pierre StrongRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.9)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Deuce VaughnRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3)9.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Roschon JohnsonRB CHIFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.6)13.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7)16.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brock BowersTE LVFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5)10.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dylan LaubeRB LVFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Trey BensonRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected +0.3)10.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +2.3)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Michael BurtonRB DENFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Raheem MostertRB LVFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ezekiel ElliottRB DALBoost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +2.6)11.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jamaal WilliamsRB NOFade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Alexander MattisonRB LVFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5)5.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Justice HillRB BALFade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.4)3.8––voidBacktest ·

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How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse