Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 7.7 | 7.2 | −0.5 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Mike Washington Jr.RB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 2.7 | +0.2 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs TB, expected +0.6) | 14.6 | 14.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | AJ DillonRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 2.4 | +0.0 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.6) | 4.5 | 4.7 | +0.2 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.4 | 9.7 | +0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.4) | 14.3 | 14.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 22.9 | 23.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 9.4 | 9.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 13.0 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | 1.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | 12.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 9.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 13.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 2.7 | 2.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 5.6 | 5.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | 3.1 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.0 | 10.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 2.6 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 11.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.2) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 5.9 | 5.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 2.7 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 11.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 2.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 13.9 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | 11.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trevor EtienneRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | 1.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 6.9 | 6.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 7.3 | 7.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 7.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.8) | 21.7 | 21.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.5 | 12.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 8.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 2.6 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | 2.8 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.5 | 2.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 1.6 | 1.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 21.4 | 21.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 12.1 | 12.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | 3.6 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | 1.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.3) | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 2.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 10.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 16.8 | 16.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 17.5 | 17.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 1.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 15.1 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 10.4 | 10.2 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 1.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 13.5 | 13.9 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | 16.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 3.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 9.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 13.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +1.1) | 16.0 | 16.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.8) | 17.4 | 17.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 2.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.0) | 15.3 | 15.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 12.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | 1.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 7.9 | 7.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.9) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 3.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 12.6 | 12.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.7) | 11.8 | 11.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 6.8 | 6.4 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 2.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 2.1 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 2.4 | 2.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 4.3 | 4.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.8) | 19.3 | 19.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | 3.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 14.2 | 13.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.6) | 5.5 | 5.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 11.2 | 11.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 12.6 | 12.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 18.3 | 18.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 10.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 4.6 | 4.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 10.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 16.8 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 1.8 | 1.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.8) | 5.4 | 5.4 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | 1.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.5) | 12.9 | 12.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 16.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 3.3 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.4) | 12.8 | 12.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 126 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse