Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +2.1) | 21.4 | 16.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | 22.8 | +15.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | 6.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Travis HomerRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | -0.1 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 7.4 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.5) | 15.5 | 25.9 | +10.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Kenny GainwellRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 10.7 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +1.2) | 17.9 | 15.6 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Keaton MitchellRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 3.7 | 11.3 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.4) | 22.1 | 27.7 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 3.7 | 5.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 2.0 | −13.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 15.7 | 25.8 | +10.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 11.6 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.7) | 7.7 | 3.1 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 12.0 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.7) | 15.3 | 18.6 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 45.2 | +28.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 18.0 | +15.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 11.8 | 7.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 3.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 10.2 | 13.3 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 11.8 | 11.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 12.0 | 19.3 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 8.0 | 4.2 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Kaelon BlackRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.9) | 4.9 | 1.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Kaytron AllenRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | 0.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 2.4 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 6.0 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 12.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | David MontgomeryRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 8.9 | 6.8 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 6.8 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Rachaad WhiteRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 8.1 | 11.1 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.8) | 19.3 | 35.3 | +16.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 17.9 | 8.9 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 9.7 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 5.9 | 0.5 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 3.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.9) | 6.9 | 3.5 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 9.1 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.7) | 12.3 | 9.1 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 5.6 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 17.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 3.9 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jeremiyah LoveRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 7.0 | 21.9 | +14.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kenyon SadiqTE NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 23.5 | +18.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jadarian PriceRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 1.2 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Ameer AbdullahRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 3.1 | 2.3 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 11.1 | 3.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | David MontgomeryRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 9.5 | 4.4 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 3.6 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.7) | 17.5 | 29.2 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 14.7 | 3.6 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Kenny GainwellRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.6) | 8.8 | 4.5 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 17.6 | 8.0 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.5) | 19.9 | 20.9 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.8) | 9.6 | 1.3 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Emari DemercadoRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 0.8 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 3.7 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.9) | 16.7 | 13.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 11.6 | 8.5 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 4.2 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.8) | 18.7 | 12.6 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 22.2 | 11.7 | −10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 11.2 | 6.5 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.0) | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.7) | 12.4 | 5.9 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 16.3 | 18.4 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 10.3 | 4.2 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | 6.7 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 13.1 | 21.4 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 10.6 | 14.9 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 5.6 | 6.1 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 1.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected +0.7) | 21.2 | 11.1 | −10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 17.3 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 0.2 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 4.7 | 6.7 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected +0.4) | 29.1 | 26.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 18.7 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jawhar JordanRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.8) | 7.3 | 0.3 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 7.9 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 11.8 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Theo Wease Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 7.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1) | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Corey KinerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 4.8 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.7) | 9.3 | 6.8 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 12.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −1.2) | 14.4 | 45.6 | +31.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 7.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | 1.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | 9.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.6) | 15.2 | 21.9 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 18.6 | 9.6 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 10 · 938 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse