Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.0) | 18.3 | 4.4 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | 1.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 6.3 | 1.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.0) | 12.3 | 6.3 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.0) | 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −1.0) | 17.6 | 24.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 9.8 | 2.9 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.1) | 20.2 | 13.1 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 9.6 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 4.3 | 8.9 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 4.6 | 5.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 15.1 | 5.8 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 10.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.1) | 15.8 | 23.0 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +1.3) | 11.8 | 9.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 2.4 | −8.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | 2.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.4 | -0.3 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | 5.3 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 5.9 | 2.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 8.2 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.9) | 15.3 | 20.9 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.7) | 18.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.3 | 8.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.2) | 22.7 | 26.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 8.1 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.0) | 10.8 | 15.9 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | -1.9 | −4.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 6.1 | 20.1 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.8) | 21.3 | 27.0 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 8.7 | 3.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.9) | 13.9 | 8.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 5.8 | 3.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 3.0 | 1.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.8) | 21.3 | 20.7 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 14.7 | 39.8 | +25.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 5.0 | 5.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 11.3 | 12.3 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −1.0) | 12.6 | 4.2 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 9.8 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.5) | 12.0 | 5.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.4) | 8.6 | 3.5 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.8) | 9.7 | 14.2 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.2) | 19.4 | 27.6 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.7) | 15.2 | 11.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 7.7 | 4.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 9.8 | 24.1 | +14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.4) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.1) | 14.9 | 14.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.0) | 13.0 | 13.9 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.9) | 21.0 | 24.3 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 6.6 | 10.1 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 3.9 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 8.4 | 21.6 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.7) | 29.0 | 25.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 10.9 | 3.3 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 2.4 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | 2.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 1.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 6.6 | 3.9 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.1) | 6.1 | 5.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.7) | 20.8 | 6.7 | −14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse