Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W14 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 22.0 | 8.3 | −13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | 5.5 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 14.3 | 17.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 20.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 45.1 | +26.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 13.5 | 21.6 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 18.4 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 13.8 | 41.8 | +28.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 20.3 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 10.6 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 11.6 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 9.4 | 6.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 9.2 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 8.6 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 16.1 | 17.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 17.7 | 20.6 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 12.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 9.6 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 7.0 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 12.9 | 11.9 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 14.8 | 17.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 19.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 11.9 | 18.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 10.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 14.6 | 9.8 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 6.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 14.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 26.9 | +14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 9.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 20.7 | 22.9 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.6) | 10.4 | 3.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 16.8 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 20.2 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.5 | 28.4 | +18.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 14.2 | 8.8 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 14.1 | 19.7 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 8.1 | 11.3 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 7.2 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 1.3 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 8.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 14.1 | 19.1 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 18.0 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.7 | 1.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 12.4 | 28.6 | +16.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 10.8 | 13.7 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 12.5 | 8.8 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 2.9 | 4.1 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.7) | 14.6 | 18.6 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | 1.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 3.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 16.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 8.0 | 9.9 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 14.7 | 11.9 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.8) | 10.7 | 25.3 | +14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 9.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 8.3 | 16.8 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 12.5 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 11.2 | 9.4 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 13.3 | 11.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 15.0 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 12.5 | 5.7 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 1.3 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 10.6 | 8.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 20.4 | 55.4 | +35.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 18.7 | 18.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 8.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 9.1 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 10.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 9.0 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 14.8 | 14.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 10.0 | 18.8 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 19.2 | 10.8 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse