Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 17.1 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 10.2 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 17.2 | 12.6 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.2 | 40.1 | +22.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 15.4 | 8.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 1.2 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 25.5 | 19.2 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | 5.5 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 18.1 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 17.2 | 5.1 | −12.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 10.8 | 1.6 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 13.7 | 36.1 | +22.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 29.4 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 16.1 | 19.8 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 14.7 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 9.5 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 25.1 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 11.9 | 4.2 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 11.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 24.0 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 7.9 | 7.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.7) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 15.1 | 28.2 | +13.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 20.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 2.7 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 14.7 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 20.2 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 15.0 | 5.6 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 10.2 | 2.4 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 15.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 16.0 | 25.0 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 10.8 | 4.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.0 | 5.1 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 0.0 | −13.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 20.3 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 14.4 | 26.6 | +12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 11.5 | 0.0 | −11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 20.9 | 18.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 28.0 | +15.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 17.7 | 37.3 | +19.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 16.4 | 14.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 12.6 | 12.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | 6.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 17.8 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 32.5 | +17.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 2.6 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 13.5 | 28.1 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 20.2 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 13.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 18.1 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 22.0 | 8.3 | −13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | 5.5 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 14.3 | 17.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 20.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 45.1 | +26.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 13.5 | 21.6 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 18.4 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 13.8 | 41.8 | +28.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 20.3 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 10.6 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 11.6 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 9.4 | 6.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 9.2 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 8.6 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 16.1 | 17.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse