Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | 1.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.3) | 10.7 | 10.2 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Myles GaskinRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 8.2 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 11.3 | 1.4 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.8) | 18.1 | 16.9 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −1.0) | 14.6 | 9.0 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DeeJay DallasRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | 12.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 11.8 | 23.8 | +12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 15.4 | 16.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Trey SermonRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 18.1 | 6.3 | −11.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 6.6 | 13.5 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.7) | 12.8 | 29.1 | +16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 19.4 | 26.4 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 4.8 | 5.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 7.1 | 2.1 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.1 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 4.6 | 2.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 16.4 | +10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 8.3 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.9) | 11.7 | 25.4 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Evan HullRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 0.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 4.8 | 1.3 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.4 | 23.6 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 4.6 | 9.7 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 32.9 | +14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.8) | 7.0 | 21.5 | +14.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +3.3) | 19.1 | 18.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 16.7 | 21.2 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.9) | 25.5 | 22.8 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 7.6 | 17.4 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | 6.6 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 2.8 | 2.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.9) | 3.6 | 12.3 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 6.5 | 10.2 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 3.8 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 10.6 | 31.8 | +21.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 3.0 | -0.1 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.6) | 10.6 | 12.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 10.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +3.1) | 18.1 | 10.0 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.7) | 24.9 | 15.7 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 9.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 10.6 | 3.0 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 9.6 | 25.0 | +15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 3.8 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.6) | 18.5 | 17.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.2) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 6.7 | 2.4 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 10.0 | 18.2 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Myles GaskinRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 5.8 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 12.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.0) | 9.7 | 9.2 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.1) | 14.7 | 23.2 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.8) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 13.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 22.6 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 14.3 | 7.0 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 13.4 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.1 | 41.4 | +22.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 16.9 | 31.5 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | -0.2 | −8.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 2.1 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 14.8 | 26.4 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse