Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W1 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.7 | 9.5 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 17.4 | 16.5 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 15.5 | 12.5 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 9.0 | 2.4 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 10.5 | 5.2 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 6.7 | 4.5 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.7) | 19.6 | 11.6 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 11.7 | 15.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.0 | 10.8 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 14.0 | 8.8 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 7.9 | 8.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 9.3 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 12.6 | 2.6 | −10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.4) | 23.4 | 31.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.9) | 6.5 | 11.2 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 4.9 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 7.3 | 6.8 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.3) | 14.8 | 18.1 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 5.5 | 4.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 17.7 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.6) | 20.0 | 24.5 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −1.3) | 14.6 | 5.9 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.0) | 11.0 | 8.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −1.2) | 24.1 | 18.9 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.6) | 18.5 | 10.9 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.9) | 18.5 | 27.6 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 3.6 | 5.0 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 10.9 | 10.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 1.9 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 10.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.3) | 8.0 | 1.8 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 6.3 | 1.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.0) | 12.3 | 6.3 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.0) | 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.1) | 20.2 | 13.1 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 9.6 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 4.6 | 5.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 10.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.1) | 15.8 | 23.0 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | 2.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.3 | 8.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.2) | 22.7 | 26.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 8.1 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.0) | 10.8 | 15.9 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 5.8 | 3.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −1.0) | 12.6 | 4.2 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 9.8 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.7) | 15.2 | 11.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 9.8 | 24.1 | +14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.4) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.9) | 21.0 | 24.3 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 6.6 | 10.1 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 8.4 | 21.6 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.7) | 29.0 | 25.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 10.9 | 3.3 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 2.4 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 6.6 | 3.9 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 3.5 | 5.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 10.6 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −2.6) | 21.0 | 9.4 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 17.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.7 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.4) | 14.4 | 7.5 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 13.1 | 14.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 12.5 | 10.1 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.2) | 13.1 | 9.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.6) | 17.6 | 8.9 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 2.0 | 0.4 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 11.8 | 12.5 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.8 | 0.3 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 3.1 | 0.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 13.1 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 4.9 | 11.5 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.6) | 10.3 | 4.5 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 4.2 | 2.2 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.0) | 6.7 | 4.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 13.5 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.7) | 14.0 | 19.4 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.0) | 16.5 | 24.9 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.2) | 9.0 | 7.7 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.3) | 17.1 | 18.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 12.3 | 19.3 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 14.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −2.1) | 15.2 | 8.7 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.7) | 16.6 | 9.8 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.2) | 15.5 | 11.1 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −1.3) | 21.7 | 19.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 2.3 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.7) | 15.3 | 8.8 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.0 | 21.3 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 12.2 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 2.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 2.3 | −14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 2.0 | 1.4 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.8) | 16.9 | 19.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse