Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W14 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.6) | 16.3 | 23.7 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 2.4 | 2.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −1.0) | 14.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.4) | 17.3 | 20.1 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 13.2 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.5) | 17.2 | 24.3 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 4.3 | 4.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.3) | 17.1 | 18.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.8) | 19.3 | 19.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.1) | 13.3 | 2.8 | −10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 26.8 | +23.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 12.3 | 19.3 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 2.7 | 3.4 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 12.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | 15.7 | +11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | 3.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.6) | 5.5 | 5.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 14.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −2.1) | 15.2 | 8.7 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.7) | 16.6 | 9.8 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 4.3 | 2.5 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.2) | 15.5 | 11.1 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.9) | 23.3 | 15.9 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 15.0 | 3.5 | −11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 3.4 | 1.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 7.4 | 12.5 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −1.3) | 21.7 | 19.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 2.3 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.7) | 15.3 | 8.8 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.8) | 12.8 | 15.4 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −1.0) | 18.8 | 21.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.0 | 21.3 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.3) | 14.5 | 17.3 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.1) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.6) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 12.2 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 2.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 2.3 | −14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 12.6 | 12.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 2.0 | 1.4 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.3) | 12.9 | 8.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.8) | 12.5 | 7.4 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 13.7 | 5.9 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.8) | 16.9 | 19.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.1) | 14.6 | 8.8 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 3.2 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 10.1 | 7.2 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 0.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.2) | 5.4 | 7.8 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 15.3 | 17.9 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 18.3 | 18.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 6.0 | −10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.1) | 14.8 | 6.6 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.5) | 18.4 | 25.5 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.8) | 6.2 | 4.5 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.1) | 15.3 | 19.0 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 15.4 | +11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 3.7 | 4.9 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 2.5 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 5.8 | 9.4 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.4) | 6.2 | 0.3 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.9) | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −1.0) | 21.8 | 10.4 | −11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 6.6 | 12.1 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.1) | 12.3 | 27.5 | +15.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 2.3 | 8.6 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse