Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W10 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 7.9 | 8.8 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.7) | 18.8 | 26.3 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | 7.3 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 9.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 2.9 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 0.7 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 4.5 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 3.6 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 7.8 | 8.8 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.6) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 22.2 | 11.3 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 11.2 | 1.7 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.6) | 19.5 | 10.5 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.9) | 16.9 | 10.5 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.4) | 17.4 | 13.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.5) | 19.8 | 21.5 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.6) | 3.7 | 16.0 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.3) | 14.6 | 32.1 | +17.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 15.2 | 29.7 | +14.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | 4.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +1.5) | 18.0 | 14.6 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.8) | 9.3 | 5.3 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.6) | 3.0 | 0.7 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.8) | 5.7 | 0.9 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 11.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.6) | 2.4 | 12.5 | +10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 4.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 9.2 | 16.0 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +1.4) | 18.8 | 14.7 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 24.8 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.9) | 18.1 | 11.5 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 16.7 | 12.1 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.6) | 8.3 | 2.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 3.4 | 1.8 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 5.8 | 11.5 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 17.5 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 14.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.7) | 16.2 | 25.5 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.5) | 10.4 | 12.6 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 12.2 | 2.6 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.8) | 15.2 | 18.9 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 0.7 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 2.4 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.2) | 15.7 | 9.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 15.0 | 15.7 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 1.6 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 4.2 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 14.8 | 26.7 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 8.3 | 11.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.0) | 4.5 | 2.4 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.9 | 15.4 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 19.2 | +16.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.6) | 2.2 | 0.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 5.3 | 23.0 | +17.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 5.8 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 5.8 | 9.2 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 10.1 | 3.0 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.5) | 18.6 | 25.2 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 1.9 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 2.3 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 2.6 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.5) | 14.3 | 4.0 | −10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 8.5 | 0.5 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 15.4 | 26.7 | +11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 3.1 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 10.0 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 5.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.6) | 12.3 | 7.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.6) | 12.4 | 29.1 | +16.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.5) | 15.0 | 13.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +3.2) | 20.4 | 19.6 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.0) | 7.0 | 3.7 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 2.5 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.1) | 16.4 | 26.1 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 16.4 | 23.3 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 2.8 | 5.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 6.4 | 23.8 | +17.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 7.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 7.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 1.1 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 16.4 | 32.0 | +15.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 3.0 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 16.7 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 3.6 | 1.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | 22.1 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 19.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 19.0 | 25.2 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.4) | 7.7 | 1.7 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse