Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 10.6 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.9) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 8.7 | 5.9 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 10.2 | 2.4 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 15.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −2.6) | 21.0 | 9.4 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 17.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 4.6 | 13.1 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 8.5 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.7 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 16.0 | 25.0 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.4) | 14.4 | 7.5 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 10.8 | 4.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 13.1 | 14.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 12.5 | 10.1 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.7) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.0 | 5.1 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.2) | 13.1 | 9.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 0.0 | −13.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 20.3 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 14.4 | 26.6 | +12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.6) | 17.6 | 8.9 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 11.5 | 0.0 | −11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 20.9 | 18.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 2.0 | 0.4 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 28.0 | +15.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 5.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 17.7 | 37.3 | +19.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 6.8 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 11.8 | 12.5 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.8) | 12.5 | 4.3 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 3.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.8 | 0.3 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 10.9 | 5.7 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 16.4 | 14.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 12.6 | 12.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 26.3 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.0) | 7.5 | 4.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 3.1 | 0.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.0) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 16.9 | 17.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.7) | 11.8 | 11.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.6) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 4.3 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 13.1 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +2.0) | 20.4 | 14.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 4.6 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 6.7 | 4.2 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.7) | 18.4 | 26.3 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 0.2 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 6.8 | 6.4 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | 6.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.8) | 16.3 | 14.6 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 18.1 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 17.8 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.6) | 19.6 | 28.4 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 4.9 | 11.5 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 3.3 | 2.8 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.6) | 10.3 | 4.5 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 0.3 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 32.5 | +17.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 2.6 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 4.2 | 2.2 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 13.5 | 28.1 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −1.0) | 19.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 21.1 | +10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | 13.4 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 10.9 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse