Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.6) | 18.2 | 31.1 | +12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 10.7 | 11.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | 2.1 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 7.4 | 0.0 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.0) | 17.7 | 21.8 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +1.0) | 14.7 | 2.9 | −11.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.2) | 4.5 | 6.6 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 21.5 | 18.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 2.7 | 5.7 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 2.1 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.4) | 4.7 | 0.4 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 6.5 | 0.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 7.6 | 6.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 5.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.7) | 18.0 | 18.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.9) | 17.0 | 15.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 12.1 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 25.3 | 27.9 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.7) | 22.0 | 9.8 | −12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | 10.5 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.7) | 9.0 | 3.1 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 13.9 | 24.7 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.0) | 8.5 | 5.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 7.8 | 13.1 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 2.6 | 11.2 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 2.7 | 2.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 17.1 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 11.1 | 4.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 10.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | 15.6 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.4) | 8.6 | 7.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.7) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 9.3 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.5) | 11.2 | 10.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 16.6 | 11.2 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 12.7 | 7.6 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.3) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 6.5 | +5.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 2.8 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.3) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 9.8 | 9.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 5.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.7) | 5.1 | 0.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.6) | 15.2 | 18.2 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 28.1 | +19.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 5.6 | 5.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 17.3 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.4) | 13.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.5) | 12.9 | 11.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 17.1 | 18.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 9.2 | 5.1 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.8) | 13.6 | 21.2 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.0) | 17.6 | 14.7 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | 3.1 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.8) | 11.3 | 6.4 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 6.8 | 3.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 8.7 | −10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +3.3) | 21.7 | 11.1 | −10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.2) | 12.8 | 9.6 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 11.2 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 1.9 | 0.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 18.5 | 10.8 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.0 | 10.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 2.6 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 5.4 | 4.1 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 6.8 | 14.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 5.8 | 7.7 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.2) | 20.0 | 17.5 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 15.8 | 7.4 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse