Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W9 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 15.2 | 29.7 | +14.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 14.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 11.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 4.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 13.1 | 9.4 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Richie JamesWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 3.4 | 1.8 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 17.5 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.5) | 10.4 | 12.6 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 12.2 | 2.6 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 18.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 15.9 | 16.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 8.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 12.9 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 4.2 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 22.2 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 13.9 | 18.5 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.5) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | 7.5 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 14.1 | 14.1 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 5.8 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 10.2 | 13.7 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 1.9 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 2.3 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 2.6 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 13.5 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 6.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 16.2 | 15.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 4.9 | 9.7 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 9.4 | 11.1 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 13.1 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 7.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.2) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 3.0 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 7.3 | 0.0 | −7.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | 22.1 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 19.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 35.5 | +17.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 4.3 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 23.6 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 6.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.4) | 20.6 | 16.1 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 15.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 17.9 | 13.7 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 14.6 | 8.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 5.6 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 10.4 | 18.7 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 5.7 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 6.3 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 14.2 | 14.2 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 12.6 | 27.5 | +14.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 6.8 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 15.6 | 3.0 | −12.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 20.1 | 11.4 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 19.0 | 15.8 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 10.1 | 7.3 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.5) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 15.8 | 13.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 9.3 | 11.8 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 4.9 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Amari CooperWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 7.5 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 5.6 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 14.5 | 11.2 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 10.9 | 13.2 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 2.1 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 14.8 | 2.0 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 2.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 13.0 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Diontae JohnsonWR CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 26.2 | +18.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 20.1 | 9.8 | −10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 5.0 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 12.6 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 17.0 | 20.5 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.4 | 1.2 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 14.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 7.7 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 18.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 11.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
NewerPage 5 of 5 · 493 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse