Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 16.7 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 3.6 | 1.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 19.0 | 25.2 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.4) | 7.7 | 1.7 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 10.8 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.2) | 12.8 | 27.2 | +14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.8) | 18.6 | 7.4 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 11.2 | 17.5 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 2.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 12.8 | 21.0 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.4) | 11.9 | 10.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 21.9 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 7.3 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 2.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.8) | 7.2 | 4.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 4.0 | 14.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 1.4 | -0.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.8) | 15.1 | 21.9 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 14.4 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 34.2 | +31.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 2.7 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.7) | 16.9 | 18.5 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 11.8 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 18.3 | 6.3 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 14.7 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.5) | 8.8 | 18.7 | +9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.6) | 17.9 | 16.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 19.4 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 10.3 | 12.7 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 17.5 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.8) | 17.4 | 13.8 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 12.4 | 14.6 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.8) | 5.4 | 2.5 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 2.2 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | 8.2 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.2) | 15.2 | 35.9 | +20.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 6.0 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.1) | 3.8 | 1.7 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs TB, expected +0.4) | 18.0 | 13.6 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 8.3 | 21.6 | +13.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 14.2 | 19.8 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.5) | 5.3 | 10.9 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 14.2 | 22.1 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 13.6 | 7.0 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 14.0 | 10.4 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 6.6 | 2.3 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.1) | 17.4 | 20.3 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 6.3 | 1.6 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.7) | 13.5 | 30.4 | +16.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 13.7 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +1.1) | 20.1 | 15.7 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 0.9 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.5) | 16.5 | 33.6 | +17.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.2) | 11.2 | 21.2 | +10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 12.8 | 0.3 | −12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 17.0 | 18.7 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 9.5 | 10.7 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −1.1) | 15.3 | 31.6 | +16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 10.2 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 15.3 | 8.8 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.7) | 14.3 | 44.0 | +29.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.6 | 5.2 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 17.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 8.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 17.4 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −1.1) | 20.2 | 24.4 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 14.1 | 3.9 | −10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 17.5 | 10.8 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 21.6 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 11.9 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 14.7 | 18.9 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | 17.9 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.6) | 18.1 | 14.4 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.6) | 17.5 | 18.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 7 of 7 · 678 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse