Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.8) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.0) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 13.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 8.4 | -0.1 | −8.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −1.0) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 1.4 | −9.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.3) | 18.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Andrew BeckRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Khari BlasingameRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.1) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.6) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.9) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 14.9 | 2.7 | −12.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 19.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Khari BlasingameRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.8) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.9) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +2.9) | 22.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.9) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.5) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.6) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.9) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.6) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.4) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 8.7 | +3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 14.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 18.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 6.7 | 0.0 | −6.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
NewerPage 7 of 7 · 698 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse