Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W6 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 7.5 | 0.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 6.7 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 16.8 | 17.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 23.6 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 17.1 | 12.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 15.9 | 0.5 | −15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 15.8 | 15.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +2.1) | 14.1 | 20.2 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 17.9 | 13.7 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.9) | 14.7 | -0.1 | −14.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 8.0 | 19.8 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 5.6 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.3) | 17.5 | 25.5 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | 2.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 17.9 | 12.1 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 8.2 | 22.7 | +14.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 6.3 | 0.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 5.7 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 10.1 | 1.7 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.4) | 4.4 | 3.4 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 10.3 | 11.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 3.4 | 10.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 12.6 | 27.5 | +14.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 5.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 6.8 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 15.6 | 3.0 | −12.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 8.2 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.2) | 13.1 | 20.0 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 8.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 20.1 | 11.4 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 12.6 | 19.2 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 18.6 | 9.7 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 12.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 12.9 | 16.1 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 15.8 | 17.9 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.8) | 15.1 | 8.8 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 15.4 | 6.7 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 6.4 | 11.5 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 10.1 | 7.3 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 8.1 | 24.8 | +16.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 6.4 | 14.5 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | 6.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.4) | 5.6 | 1.2 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 3.8 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.7) | 16.5 | 17.9 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 16.1 | 18.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 5.6 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected +0.6) | 17.4 | 24.9 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 11.8 | 18.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 14.6 | 11.8 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 15.2 | 17.8 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.4) | 10.6 | 29.5 | +18.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 10.9 | 13.2 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.8) | 10.8 | 8.2 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.8) | 16.6 | 10.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.5) | 13.4 | 15.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 3.6 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 3.8 | −13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.8) | 16.6 | 11.4 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 2.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.9) | 6.5 | 8.6 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 11.9 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 14.8 | 2.0 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 13.0 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 15.6 | 25.8 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 8.3 | 7.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Diontae JohnsonWR CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 26.2 | +18.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 5.3 | 11.0 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 12.4 | 5.8 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.5) | 13.4 | 6.2 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 5.3 | 6.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 5.0 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 12.6 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.2) | 10.6 | 27.9 | +17.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 0.9 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.8) | 15.5 | 12.5 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.4 | 1.2 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 8.5 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 0.9 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 5.6 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.3) | 17.2 | 16.3 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 13.1 | 16.6 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 5.2 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 14.5 | 9.8 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.0) | 14.6 | 19.4 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 7.7 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 3.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.6) | 13.8 | 13.1 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 15.0 | 15.5 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 9.2 | 11.6 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 1.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.1) | 16.4 | 15.2 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 4.6 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 0.9 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 14.7 | 10.6 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 18.9 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.4) | 11.6 | 10.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse