Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W7 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | 1.4 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trevor EtienneRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 17.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 11.0 | 18.4 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 4.3 | 2.2 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 7.8 | 7.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 26.4 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.3) | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 13.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.6) | 7.8 | 4.4 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −1.2) | 17.2 | 8.7 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 7.2 | 9.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 11.4 | 6.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.8) | 10.7 | 8.1 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.0) | 19.5 | 32.0 | +12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.3) | 15.3 | 4.0 | −11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 21.1 | 23.7 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 2.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 16.3 | 9.5 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 10.5 | 6.1 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 17.2 | 8.7 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 14.8 | 5.9 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 20.3 | 35.8 | +15.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 8.9 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 0.1 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 1.7 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | 9.0 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.0) | 18.7 | 7.5 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | 5.1 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 16.8 | 16.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | 5.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 8.6 | 6.5 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 6.6 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.8) | 15.4 | 9.3 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.1) | 21.6 | 27.9 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.9) | 15.4 | 9.5 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 8.0 | 18.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 17.5 | 17.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 2.2 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 14.8 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 12.6 | 18.2 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 23.2 | 31.6 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 1.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.8) | 15.5 | 8.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.1) | 19.0 | 26.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 8.6 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 3.5 | 1.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 16.6 | 17.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 9.6 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 5.3 | 5.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 11.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 18.5 | 16.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1) | 23.0 | 16.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 11.8 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 1.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 15.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 4.2 | 2.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.3) | 17.3 | 7.8 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 24.9 | 26.1 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.4 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +1.1) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.6) | 10.9 | 8.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.4) | 18.2 | 17.4 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 7.4 | 28.7 | +21.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.8) | 11.6 | 10.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 1.2 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NE, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 4.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse