Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Darren WallerTE CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 7.2 | 6.6 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.5) | 14.0 | 17.0 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | 5.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 6.7 | 0.0 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 16.5 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 11.7 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 6.0 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kenyon SadiqTE NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 23.5 | +18.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 26.0 | +15.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 3.7 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 4.2 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 5.6 | 6.1 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | 13.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 7.0 | 6.1 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.0) | 16.0 | 23.6 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 7.7 | 7.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 14.2 | 24.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 14.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 4.8 | 5.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 16.4 | +10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 9.6 | 25.0 | +15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 3.8 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 7.4 | 0.0 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 7.6 | 6.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 10.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 2.8 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 5.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 17.3 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 18.5 | 10.8 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.0 | 10.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 6.8 | 14.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 14.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 7.3 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 11.6 | 8.7 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | 12.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 8.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 2.7 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | 11.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | 6.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 11.8 | 24.5 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 1.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 6.1 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6) | 12.0 | 9.5 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 7.9 | 0.0 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 7.3 | 7.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 7.1 | 2.9 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 10.7 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | 23.4 | +14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 10.3 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 3.7 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 8.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | 12.1 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.6 | 2.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 14.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 14.4 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 8.4 | 11.8 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 28.1 | +22.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 12.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 23.9 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 12.1 | 18.3 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 0.0 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 11.2 | 18.6 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 15.2 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | 0.0 | −8.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 13.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.3 | 30.3 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 7.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 4.4 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 8.3 | 7.3 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 5.0 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 11.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 2.2 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 19.8 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 6.8 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 173 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse