Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W4 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 16.1 | 11.5 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.7) | 18.6 | 14.6 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 14.7 | 16.0 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NE, expected +0.4) | 13.7 | 9.9 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 5.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 19.0 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.9 | 2.1 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | 1.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 8.7 | 1.3 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 10.4 | 10.2 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.7) | 18.9 | 10.4 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 12.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 13.5 | 10.1 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.8) | 19.8 | 17.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 21.1 | 17.7 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 25.5 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 5.3 | -0.2 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 3.9 | 1.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 4.2 | 27.9 | +23.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 13.9 | 27.5 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 7.2 | 19.8 | +12.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.6) | 8.2 | 21.5 | +13.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.2) | 20.0 | 10.7 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 21.4 | 24.0 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 15.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 9.2 | 11.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.4) | 19.1 | 9.5 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 6.8 | 7.5 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 1.1 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 13.9 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.6) | 10.2 | 29.4 | +19.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 13.3 | 15.3 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 19.8 | 32.8 | +13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | 0.8 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | 1.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.7) | 11.8 | 4.6 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 5.3 | 2.8 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 15.9 | 11.6 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 5.8 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs NE, expected +0.4) | 15.6 | 13.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 19.7 | 20.8 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.2) | 8.9 | 2.4 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 1.4 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 9.8 | 23.6 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | 2.2 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.0) | 21.6 | 16.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 15.2 | 6.0 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 16.7 | 16.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.8) | 18.2 | 26.9 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.6) | 16.7 | 13.9 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.5 | 5.6 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 1.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 11.1 | 24.9 | +13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 24.1 | +18.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 4.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 6.8 | 7.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 21.5 | 2.3 | −19.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 12.2 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 16.7 | 17.4 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 13.3 | 9.2 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 0.6 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 14.4 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | 2.9 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 12.9 | 15.5 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 13.5 | 13.9 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 12.2 | 18.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 21.2 | +11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | 16.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.0) | 15.3 | 26.5 | +11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 9.9 | 18.8 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 17.8 | 19.8 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 8.5 | −10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NE, expected +0.3) | 17.9 | 26.2 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 9.6 | 1.0 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 9.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse