Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 11.2 | 18.6 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 15.2 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.3 | 30.3 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 8.3 | 7.3 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 19.8 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | 13.4 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 11.2 | 1.7 | −9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 20.2 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 10.2 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 9.9 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 7.8 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 13.6 | 2.8 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | 12.3 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 8.3 | 28.1 | +19.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 7.2 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 7.0 | 3.3 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 15.6 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 27.0 | +20.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | 11.4 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.3 | 0.0 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 10.3 | 25.0 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 4.2 | 5.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 8.5 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 23.6 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 13.6 | 19.3 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 8.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 8.1 | 24.8 | +16.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 3.6 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 5.6 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse