Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 16.3 | 18.4 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 10.3 | 4.2 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected +0.4) | 29.1 | 26.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 11.8 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Theo Wease Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 7.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 7.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 18.6 | 9.6 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 19.1 | 11.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 0.0 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 7.9 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 15.7 | 21.9 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.4 | 23.6 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 16.7 | 21.2 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 12.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 14.3 | 7.0 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.1 | 41.4 | +22.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 14.8 | 26.4 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 10.7 | 11.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 21.5 | 18.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.9) | 17.0 | 15.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 12.1 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 25.3 | 27.9 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | 10.5 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 17.1 | 18.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.2) | 12.8 | 9.6 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 15.8 | 7.4 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 4.1 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | 3.6 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 16.0 | 24.2 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 1.5 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 8.1 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.0) | 18.7 | 0.6 | −18.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 16.6 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 5.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 30.6 | +17.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 3.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 8.3 | 6.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 19.3 | 11.9 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 13.9 | 9.9 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 22.3 | 6.0 | −16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.1 | 20.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 2.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 13.1 | 7.1 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 21.2 | 16.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 11.8 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 16.1 | 0.0 | −16.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 1.5 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 2.2 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 16.4 | 8.0 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 7.7 | 15.8 | +8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 7.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 18.6 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 7.9 | 4.8 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 3.1 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 29.0 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 20.1 | 18.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 2.0 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 19.0 | 13.7 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 12.7 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 11.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 12.2 | 7.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 4.1 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 13.3 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 17.3 | 8.9 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 16.8 | 7.5 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 10.7 | 2.2 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 14.5 | 4.0 | −10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 10.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 1.4 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 17.9 | 16.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.2 | 40.1 | +22.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 1.2 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | 5.5 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 17.2 | 5.1 | −12.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 29.4 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 14.7 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 9.5 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 25.1 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 11.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 24.0 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 20.2 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 15.0 | 5.6 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 10.2 | 2.4 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 15.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 16.0 | 25.0 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 10.8 | 4.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse