Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 15.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 16.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 20.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | 2.8 | +0.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 15.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 0.0 | −12.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 16.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.7) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 13.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 14.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 2.3 | −14.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Richie JamesWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.5) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.2) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 7.3 | 0.0 | −7.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 15.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse