Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 3.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 9.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 13.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +1.1) | 16.0 | 16.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.8) | 17.4 | 17.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 2.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.0) | 15.3 | 15.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 12.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | 1.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 7.9 | 7.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.9) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 3.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 12.6 | 12.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.7) | 11.8 | 11.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 6.8 | 6.4 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 2.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 2.1 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 2.4 | 2.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 4.3 | 4.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.8) | 19.3 | 19.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | 3.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 14.2 | 13.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.6) | 5.5 | 5.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 11.2 | 11.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 12.6 | 12.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 18.3 | 18.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 10.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 4.6 | 4.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 10.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 16.8 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 1.8 | 1.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.8) | 5.4 | 5.4 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | 1.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.5) | 12.9 | 12.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 16.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 3.3 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.4) | 12.8 | 12.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 2.5 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 3.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 12.8 | 12.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 7.1 | 6.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 14.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.7) | 7.8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 4.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 15.9 | 16.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 19.9 | 20.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 14.1 | 14.1 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 16.2 | 15.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 4.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 18.6 | 18.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 14.2 | 14.2 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 1.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.9) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 5.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 10.2 | 9.9 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.4) | 10.7 | 10.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 15.0 | 14.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 16.5 | 16.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 17.6 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 12.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse