Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 2.1 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 1.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.8) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 8.3 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 25.4 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.5) | 24.9 | 29.8 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 32.9 | +14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.9) | 19.1 | 18.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | 17.4 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 12.0 | 9.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 10.6 | 1.1 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 13.1 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | 5.4 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.7) | 10.6 | 31.8 | +21.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 10.6 | 12.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 8.0 | 8.5 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.1) | 10.4 | 16.5 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 8.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 1.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 18.1 | 10.0 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 6.1 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +1.6) | 24.9 | 15.7 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 11.4 | 9.5 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 3.0 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 6.7 | 2.4 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 9.2 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 14.7 | 23.2 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 12.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.7) | 13.4 | 13.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −1.0) | 15.0 | 22.6 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 19.2 | 15.1 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 8.7 | -0.2 | −8.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 7.8 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 9.0 | 3.6 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 6.2 | 2.9 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 2.1 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.6) | 17.7 | 21.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.9) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 6.5 | 0.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 6.7 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 22.0 | 9.8 | −12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.8) | 14.0 | 8.1 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 24.7 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 12.2 | 8.2 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 8.9 | 3.3 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 15.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 11.2 | 10.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 11.2 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 12.7 | 7.6 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | 9.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 8.7 | 28.1 | +19.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.9) | 11.4 | 14.3 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | 17.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.7) | 12.9 | 11.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 17.6 | 14.7 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 6.4 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 3.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 21.7 | 11.1 | −10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 8.4 | 6.5 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 11.2 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 15.2 | 4.3 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 14.1 | 3.8 | −10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 3.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 19.8 | 9.4 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 6.2 | 6.7 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.4) | 25.3 | 37.0 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | 8.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.5) | 13.7 | 16.1 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 14.2 | 5.8 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 9.8 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 8.7 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 3.2 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 14.7 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.7) | 12.4 | 9.4 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse