Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.5 | 4.8 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.4) | 10.1 | 45.6 | +35.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.7) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.6) | 14.6 | 37.4 | +22.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 10.0 | 3.6 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 11.5 | 8.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 7.5 | 10.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 9.1 | 4.9 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 2.1 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | 1.8 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 5.0 | 7.1 | +2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 9.2 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 7.8 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 18.5 | 10.8 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 4.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 10.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 4.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 14.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 15.4 | 14.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 0.2 | 1.6 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 7.7 | 5.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 7.8 | 12.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 1.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.6) | 7.9 | 25.4 | +17.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 10.1 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 9.5 | 20.6 | +11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 14.0 | 15.5 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 6.7 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 10.6 | 11.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 9.8 | 10.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 9.6 | 4.7 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 8.7 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 3.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | 8.9 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James MitchellTE CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.4) | 16.8 | 22.2 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 13.5 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.8) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 22.3 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 11.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 7.4 | 4.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 24.5 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.4 | 13.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 5.8 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 10.4 | 4.0 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 6.6 | 5.9 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 12.2 | 10.6 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 4.5 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 9.9 | 11.1 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | 6.1 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 2.4 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.8) | 12.7 | 11.5 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 3.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 8.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 10.3 | 24.1 | +13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 24.7 | +13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 0.0 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | 11.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 10.1 | 15.7 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 6.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 3.4 | 2.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 3.5 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 11.6 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 4.3 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 13.5 | 14.2 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 17.1 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 6.6 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.2) | 9.3 | 23.4 | +14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 11.2 | 8.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 6.7 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 9.5 | +8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.8) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 27.7 | +12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.8) | 9.6 | 5.7 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 10.3 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.6 | 5.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.1) | 13.9 | 3.7 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.6) | 11.7 | 17.9 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 9.6 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | 1.4 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 3.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse