Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 6.1 | 7.8 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 9.2 | 17.2 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 1.8 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −1.0) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 7.1 | 9.6 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NE, expected −0.4) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.5) | 29.1 | 26.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 21.1 | 20.3 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.7) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.0) | 17.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 15.4 | 27.9 | +12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 6.6 | 2.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 16.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.7) | 11.6 | 7.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 7.6 | 8.9 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 12.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 25.1 | +14.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 8.4 | 7.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 5.9 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 2.9 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jahdae WalkerWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 11.6 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 1.8 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.0) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 4.9 | 8.3 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 4.8 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 4.3 | −10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 17.3 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 7.5 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 3.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 9.4 | 2.7 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 12.1 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 20.4 | 22.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 1.0 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 2.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | 1.5 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 14.4 | 45.6 | +31.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.8) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 13.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 15.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 4.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 4.2 | 7.7 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 8.2 | 23.8 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 4.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.7 | 5.1 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 7.1 | 6.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 12.6 | 11.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 5.7 | 1.7 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.7) | 9.1 | 6.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.9) | 12.0 | 11.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 12.7 | 13.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 9.3 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 11.3 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 14.6 | 7.0 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.7) | 18.6 | 9.6 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 1.7 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 13.7 | 8.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 2.8 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.6) | 11.7 | 0.7 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 1.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 27.2 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 9.3 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 21.0 | 25.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 11.9 | 6.8 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −1.1) | 17.4 | 14.8 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse