Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W7 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 1.9 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 9.5 | 0.0 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 11.8 | 4.8 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 7.1 | 12.9 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 6.6 | 2.6 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 3.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 6.9 | 0.0 | −6.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 29.4 | +15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 16.8 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 15.6 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.6) | 11.0 | 7.6 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 11.1 | 16.3 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 5.7 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 14.0 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 7.6 | 5.8 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 3.8 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 9.3 | 6.6 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 2.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 10.1 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 12.3 | 18.3 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 10.6 | 19.1 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.8) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 7.1 | 18.7 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 10.9 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 11.0 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 4.2 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 4.7 | 17.1 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 15.2 | 9.1 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 12.1 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.4) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 14.4 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 8.5 | 17.7 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 6.1 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 9.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.8) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 7.9 | 2.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 3.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 1.1 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 14.9 | 12.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 10.6 | 10.6 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +1.0) | 13.9 | 9.6 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 12.1 | 18.3 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 4.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 6.6 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NE, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 5.3 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 8.8 | 21.2 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 1.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 11.1 | 6.8 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 8.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
NewerPage 3 of 3 · 259 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse