Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.8) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 16.5 | 3.5 | −13.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 2.4 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.9) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.7) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 2.3 | −5.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.8) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.6) | 13.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 15.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.8) | 16.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 15.4 | 0.0 | −15.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse