Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W11 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 5.7 | 2.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.9) | 15.8 | 9.4 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 9.6 | 4.3 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 6.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 2.8 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 1.8 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.8) | 21.5 | 17.6 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 15.1 | 13.1 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 4.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 11.5 | 15.3 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 9.4 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.9) | 22.1 | 49.6 | +27.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 14.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 11.7 | 2.5 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 15.7 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +1.2) | 20.7 | 10.7 | −10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 11.1 | 4.1 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 11.5 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 19.5 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 10.0 | 8.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 21.1 | 38.2 | +17.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 0.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 12.7 | 15.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.6) | 18.7 | 13.1 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 22.8 | 34.3 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 1.2 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.0) | 11.9 | 0.7 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 8.0 | 3.4 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 3.5 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 17.9 | 20.0 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 7.2 | 28.1 | +20.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 6.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 22.0 | 7.7 | −14.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | 1.7 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 7.3 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 8.1 | 6.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 19.6 | 17.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 19.2 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.9) | 18.0 | 16.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 2.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 9.6 | 2.7 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 15.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 12.7 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 17.0 | 19.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 19.7 | 9.8 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.2 | 0.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 14.1 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 15.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 11.5 | 5.9 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 17.1 | 17.9 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 16.1 | 8.1 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 6.8 | 9.4 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +1.4) | 26.2 | 5.8 | −20.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.9) | 16.3 | 20.1 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 2.4 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 2.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 5.5 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.9) | 23.3 | 39.1 | +15.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.7) | 14.0 | 5.9 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 16.3 | 5.2 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 18.8 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.5) | 14.0 | 20.8 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 14.7 | 6.5 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 15.8 | 8.4 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.8) | 19.3 | 8.5 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 5.1 | 0.7 | −4.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.9) | 15.0 | 12.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | 10.6 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 2.7 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 12.4 | 4.2 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.3) | 17.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse