Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 7.1 | 0.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 7.7 | 10.6 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 2.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 6.7 | 2.4 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 9.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 14.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 13.0 | 15.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 9.2 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 14.7 | 23.2 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 7.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 12.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.7) | 13.4 | 13.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 10.6 | 5.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.9) | 11.8 | 18.7 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −1.0) | 15.0 | 22.6 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.5 | 4.8 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 6.5 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.0) | 13.3 | 4.2 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.8) | 17.0 | 17.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 23.5 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | 1.9 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 19.1 | 41.4 | +22.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.4) | 10.1 | 45.6 | +35.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 19.2 | 15.1 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.7) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 8.7 | -0.2 | −8.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 7.8 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 14.8 | 26.4 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 18.0 | 6.3 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 9.0 | 3.6 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 5.4 | 19.5 | +14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 6.2 | 2.9 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.6) | 14.6 | 37.4 | +22.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 2.1 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 3.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 10.3 | 5.6 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.6) | 17.7 | 21.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 10.0 | 3.6 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 14.7 | 16.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 10.8 | 5.9 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 6.8 | 1.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.9) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 15.6 | 16.4 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 6.5 | 0.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 6.7 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 5.5 | 7.7 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 11.1 | 8.6 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | 10.3 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 17.0 | 15.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.5) | 16.5 | 12.1 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.7) | 25.3 | 27.9 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 22.0 | 9.8 | −12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 6.5 | 10.5 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 11.5 | 8.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.8) | 14.0 | 8.1 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 24.7 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 6.3 | 8.0 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 7.6 | 5.8 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 20.8 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 10.4 | 5.5 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.6) | 9.2 | 15.6 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 12.2 | 8.2 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 7.5 | 10.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 9.1 | 4.9 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 13.4 | 10.4 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 8.9 | 3.3 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 15.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 5.2 | 8.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 11.2 | 10.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 6.8 | 14.4 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 2.1 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | 1.8 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.7 | 7.1 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 11.2 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 12.7 | 7.6 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse