Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W3 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 5.3 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 20.0 | 10.7 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 21.4 | 24.0 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NE, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 5.3 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | 12.8 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 22.9 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 16.1 | 10.8 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 16.0 | 22.4 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 20.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.7) | 16.5 | 12.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | 15.7 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 1.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 10.5 | 5.4 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.6) | 16.7 | 16.1 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 19.7 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 11.1 | 6.8 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 8.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 0.0 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 29.5 | +14.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 9.1 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 14.6 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 17.5 | 36.5 | +19.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 2.2 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.7) | 17.7 | 9.0 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.7) | 14.5 | 5.8 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 19.8 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 11.1 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 1.1 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 5.6 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 6 of 6 · 530 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse