Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 20.9 | 17.4 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.3 | 0.6 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.7) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 10.6 | 11.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −1.6) | 19.6 | 17.4 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 9.8 | 10.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | 2.1 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | 5.3 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 12.1 | 9.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 5.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | River CracraftWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 17.2 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 9.6 | 4.7 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 2.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 8.7 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 17.6 | 5.6 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.6) | 11.1 | 21.3 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 3.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 10.2 | 22.6 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 7.8 | 10.0 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 35.2 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.9) | 10.7 | 12.8 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 16.7 | 10.1 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 14.4 | 11.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | 8.9 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 12.0 | 9.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.9) | 20.4 | 15.1 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 13.3 | 2.3 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.8) | 9.5 | 13.9 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 2.4 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 7.3 | 20.4 | +13.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.6) | 14.0 | 7.0 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khalil HerbertRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | 9.8 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −1.2) | 24.1 | 0.0 | −24.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.6) | 16.0 | 5.1 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 10.6 | 5.3 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.7) | 15.6 | 14.7 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.9) | 13.2 | 26.9 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 17.4 | 18.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 1.5 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James MitchellTE CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 8.1 | 2.6 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 5.7 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 17.8 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.6) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | 7.5 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.4) | 16.8 | 22.2 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | 2.6 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 14.9 | 15.6 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 21.1 | 30.3 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 21.3 | 4.3 | −17.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 9.5 | 3.6 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 13.5 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 10.1 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 6.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 13.5 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 6.1 | 3.7 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 9.3 | 8.6 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | 6.4 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +1.0) | 21.6 | 19.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 18.7 | 0.6 | −18.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.8) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.0) | 17.8 | 29.4 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −1.4) | 23.9 | 11.6 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 22.3 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 12.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 4.1 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 7.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 10.6 | 4.8 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 11.4 | 11.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 7.8 | 3.4 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 12.5 | 12.1 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse