Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 15.1 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 12.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3) | 23.3 | 24.5 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 12.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 13.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 9.0 | 11.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 13.3 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.7) | 14.9 | 31.3 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 7.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 3.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 3.0 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 13.6 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 11.6 | 6.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 1.8 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.9) | 15.3 | 7.0 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 12.1 | 23.6 | +11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 13.0 | 12.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 18.4 | 20.1 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 15.1 | 15.1 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | 6.4 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 16.6 | 22.6 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 11.1 | 7.8 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 15.4 | 11.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 7.3 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 16.5 | 20.2 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 29.8 | +17.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 3.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 12.1 | 8.1 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 3.9 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 1.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 18.6 | 13.0 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 23.8 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 10.8 | 4.2 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 15.4 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 11.6 | 6.4 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 18.6 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 7.0 | 17.1 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 2.1 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 14.8 | 8.6 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 0.0 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 2.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 11.3 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jack BechWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 5.3 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 15.6 | 15.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | 12.8 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 22.9 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 4.9 | −10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | 19.3 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 12.5 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +1.1) | 16.6 | 0.0 | −16.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 11.7 | 2.5 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 16.0 | 22.4 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 10.3 | 14.9 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.7) | 17.3 | 8.9 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 20.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | 15.7 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 11.7 | 17.8 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 9.9 | 8.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 7.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 5.3 | 8.8 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 10.5 | 5.4 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 4.1 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 19.7 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 15.1 | 15.2 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 7.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 0.0 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 20.2 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 9.1 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 14.6 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 17.5 | 36.5 | +19.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 2.2 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.7) | 17.7 | 9.0 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 11.1 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 5.6 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 19.0 | 17.9 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 15.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 21.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 13.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 21.4 | 8.4 | −13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 13.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse