Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Pre-snap motion: every call

Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.

2024 backtest

84–83–9

50.3% vs 48.6% baseline

Win rate 50.3% (95% 42.8%–57.8%) vs baseline 48.6%

2025 backtest

550–530–68

50.9% vs 50.8% baseline

Win rate 50.9% (95% 47.9%–53.9%) vs baseline 50.8%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

44–51–3

46.3% vs 53.8% baseline

Win rate 46.3% (95% 36.6%–56.3%) vs baseline 53.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR316–306–3450.8%50.5%
RB205–209–2549.5%50.6%
TE113–98–1853.5%50.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5455–443–6250.7%50.2%
0.5–1163–151–1451.9%51.0%
1+16–19–145.7%53.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pre-snap motion calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W4Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5)7.017.1+10.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3)13.32.1−11.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Ricky PearsallWR SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5)14.88.6−6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3)7.10.0−7.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Tory HortonWR SEAFade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3)6.92.0−4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Matthew GoldenWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)9.311.3+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jack BechWR LVBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5)1.40.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3)7.65.3−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Demarcus RobinsonWR SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.5)15.615.9+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W3DJ MooreWR CHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)16.012.8−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Parris CampbellWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3A.J. BrownWR PHIFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3)14.722.9+8.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASFade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3)15.44.9−10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3)12.719.3+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jauan JenningsWR SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4)11.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Brandon AiyukWR SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3)11.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected −0.3)18.312.5−5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W3CeeDee LambWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +1.1)16.60.0−16.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Tee HigginsWR CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4)11.72.5−9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Nico CollinsWR HOUFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5)16.022.4+6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.4)10.314.9+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.7)17.38.9−8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W3DeVonta SmithWR PHIFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3)13.320.0+6.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Chris OlaveWR NOFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.415.7+3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W3George PickensWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6)11.717.8+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Rashid ShaheedWR NOFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4)9.98.2−1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jalen TolbertWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3)6.07.4+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W3KaVontae TurpinWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5)5.38.8+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jalen BrooksWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Tank DellWR HOUFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4)10.55.4−5.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Ryan FlournoyWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.64.1+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Ricky PearsallWR SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3)10.919.7+8.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Rome OdunzeWR CHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)15.115.2+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W2Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3)6.87.2+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W2Allen LazardWR NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.3)8.60.0−8.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W2CeeDee LambWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3)15.820.2+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Jerry JeudyWR CLEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3)12.19.1−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Tee HigginsWR CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3)13.714.6+0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Tyler JohnsonWR NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.4)4.50.0−4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5)17.536.5+19.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3)10.72.2−8.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.7)17.79.0−8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Josh DownsWR INDFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)8.611.1+2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3)12.05.6−6.4❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 8 of 8 · 747 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse